# Forward Vulnerability Rankings (2024 Demographics)

Countries ranked by predicted banking crisis probability (Xβ + country FE).

## Most Vulnerable Countries

| Rank | Country | Crisis Score | Xβ Component | Country FE | CA Reversal Score |
|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | UKR | 0.1094 | 0.0079 | 0.1015 | 0.2844 |
| 2 | RUS | 0.0813 | 0.0027 | 0.0786 | 0.2065 |
| 3 | ARG | 0.0643 | -0.0062 | 0.0705 | 0.0496 |
| 4 | NGA | 0.0522 | -0.0175 | 0.0697 | 0.3121 |
| 5 | GNB | 0.0505 | -0.0190 | 0.0695 | 0.2823 |
| 6 | KAZ | 0.0505 | -0.0051 | 0.0555 | 0.2665 |
| 7 | COL | 0.0502 | -0.0098 | 0.0601 | 0.0546 |
| 8 | TUR | 0.0476 | -0.0072 | 0.0548 | 0.2352 |
| 9 | LBN | 0.0458 | 0.0036 | 0.0421 | 0.2135 |
| 10 | SVK | 0.0447 | 0.0059 | 0.0388 | 0.1733 |
| 11 | MDA | 0.0447 | 0.0078 | 0.0369 | 0.3756 |
| 12 | LVA | 0.0445 | 0.0044 | 0.0401 | 0.2168 |
| 13 | KOR | 0.0442 | 0.0014 | 0.0428 | -0.0090 |
| 14 | USA | 0.0425 | -0.0044 | 0.0469 | -0.0264 |
| 15 | SWE | 0.0423 | -0.0035 | 0.0458 | 0.0047 |
| 16 | THA | 0.0416 | -0.0004 | 0.0420 | 0.2155 |
| 17 | MNG | 0.0415 | -0.0142 | 0.0557 | 0.3404 |
| 18 | BOL | 0.0411 | -0.0156 | 0.0567 | 0.2384 |
| 19 | IRL | 0.0411 | -0.0044 | 0.0454 | 0.1136 |
| 20 | NIC | 0.0403 | -0.0242 | 0.0644 | 0.1658 |
| 21 | CHN | 0.0400 | 0.0011 | 0.0390 | 0.0488 |
| 22 | SVN | 0.0399 | 0.0059 | 0.0340 | 0.0297 |
| 23 | TUN | 0.0394 | -0.0016 | 0.0411 | 0.0633 |
| 24 | DOM | 0.0383 | -0.0169 | 0.0553 | 0.0983 |
| 25 | CZE | 0.0380 | 0.0025 | 0.0356 | 0.0433 |

## Least Vulnerable Countries

| Rank | Country | Crisis Score | Xβ Component | Country FE |
|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| 162 | BEN | -0.0090 | -0.0183 | 0.0093 |
| 163 | GTM | -0.0091 | -0.0287 | 0.0197 |
| 164 | BLZ | -0.0092 | -0.0243 | 0.0152 |
| 165 | GMB | -0.0092 | -0.0256 | 0.0164 |
| 166 | WSM | -0.0095 | -0.0164 | 0.0069 |
| 167 | RWA | -0.0096 | -0.0266 | 0.0170 |
| 168 | LSO | -0.0120 | -0.0241 | 0.0121 |
| 169 | NER | -0.0138 | -0.0197 | 0.0059 |
| 170 | ETH | -0.0145 | -0.0229 | 0.0084 |
| 171 | GUY | -0.0347 | -0.0562 | 0.0214 |

*Rankings based on 171 countries with complete 2020–2024 data. Score = Xβ (demographic + macro fundamentals) + country fixed effect.*